While doomsday sayers have been predicting the death of the PC for years, it appears that the exact opposite is the truth with the latest research showing PC shipments worldwide are to rise this year by 12.6%.

Market research firm IDC says that shipments of PCs around the world will reach 257.5million with 28% growth coming in portable PC sales such as notebook computers.

The gains are coming from the Asia-Pacific region (not including Japan) and the region IDC collectively calls “Rest of the World”. Strong demand for portable computers in homes has driven the growth in sales over the second-quarter ending June 30.

However, the news is not all good with mature markets such as the US, Europe and Japan all showing downward sales, although IDC still expects these markets to now show growth in 2009.

IDC sees the market for traditional desktop PCs and x86-class servers slowing in the US from 39.4million in 2006 to 28.4million in 2011. By contrast, the demand for portable computers will see sales grow from 26.1million in 2006 to double that number and hitting 53.6million by 2011.

International desktop and x86 server numbers however are predicted to climb from 106.9million in 2006 to 139.7million in 2011 while notebook computer sales will soar from 2006’s 56.3million to a healthy 140.7million in five years.

The demand for computing in Asia-Pacific outside of Japan (APeJ) and the Rest of the World is now so strong that it is expected to exceed that of Europe in 2007 and the US in 2009 according to the latest IDC research.

"Overall, we should expect to see strong growth for the next several years, with double-digit increases expected through 2009," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "The shift to mobility will continue to drive growth, as portable PCs are expected to represent more than 50% of shipment value during 2007 and more than half of worldwide volume by 2009. Portable share of PC Clients will reach 68% of volume in the United States and Western Europe by 2011, 44% in APeJ and Rest of World, and 55% overall."

"The U.S. market should maintain growth in mid-single digits through most of the forecast," said David Daoud, research manager, IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker and Personal Systems. "Some pressure on spending related to the debt crunch may constrain 2008, but aggressive competition for fast growing Consumer demand, as well as resurgent commercial spending will help fuel growth. Acer and Lenovo's geographic expansion, combined with Dell's reorganization and HP's defence of its share gains will make for a dynamic and competitive market. Smaller vendors are likely to face even more pressure going forward as the largest players consolidate share and reposition themselves."

*Forecast data
PCs include Desktop, Notebook, Ultra Portable, and x86 Server and do not include handhelds.

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, September 2007

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